IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY BY COMBINING RECURSIVE AND ROLLING FORECASTS

This article presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. Using a characterization of the bias-variance trade-off faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling schemes or a scalar convex combination of the two, we derive optimal observation windows and combining weights designed to minimize mean square forecast error. Monte Carlo experiments and several empirical examples indicate that combination can often provide improvements in forecast accuracy relative to forecasts made using the recursive scheme or the rolling scheme with a fixed window width. Copyright © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research AssociationNo claim to original US government works .