Incertidumbre en los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo (I+D). Un estudio de la literatura

Due to the high level of uncertainty of research and development (R&D) investment projects, such projects are undertaken by stages. At different points in time those projects are reviewed as options to continue or abandon them arise. This decision depends upon signals provided by the projects themselves during their investment time-frame (conclusion of a research stage, product demand, raw materials price, competition, among others). Given this high uncertainty about risks in R&D projects it is difficult to value them, which may lead to either overvalue or undervalue them. This article attempts to present recent advances on the subject by identifying problems and methodologies under study in recent years. In general, currently used methodologies are categorized within multi-criteria analyses, options theory, and the theory of possibilities from a fuzzy-sets perspective.