Incompatibility, Confrontation, and War: Four Models and Three Historical Systems, 1816—1976

Incompatibilities based on the functions of the state and the system of states are often thought to give rise to confrontations and war. Departing from the exclusive characteristics of the state, four models built around different incompatibilities can be constructed: the Geopolitik, Realpolitik, Kapitalpolitik, and Idealpolitik models. The inter-state system since 1816 can, furthermore, be seen as three consecutive systems, where the four models predict conflict behaviour in different pairs of major states. Carrying out such a test, with the use of Correlates of War data, all models have some explanatory power, but only one version of the Idealpolitik model manages to capture more than two-thirds of all war relations between major states. Also, the results demonstrate how the three systems relate to each other in a logical evolution, with only one more step to take, but at the cost of humankind.