Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area

Sebastian Weiske

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were highly correlated with the output gap in the past and (ii) that are ideally not subject to revisions. According to a real-time analysis, indicator-based estimates prove to be more reliable than estimates from international institutions. Currently, estimates point to positive output gaps in the euro area.

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Year of publication:	2018
Authors:	Weiske, Sebastian
Publisher:	[Wiesbaden] : German Council of Economic Experts
Subject:	Business Cycles \| Output Gap \| Real-time Estimation \| Business Survey Data \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Bruttoinlandsprodukt \| Gross domestic product \| Produktionspotenzial \| Potential output \| EU-Staaten \| EU countries \| Eurozone \| Euro area \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator \| Kapazitätsauslastung \| Capacity utilization