Industry structure and employment growth: evidence from semiparametric geoadditive models

Using Local Labor Systems (LLSs) data, we assess the effect of the local productive structure on the employment growth in Italy during the period 1981-2008. Italy represents an interesting case study because of the high degree of spatial heterogeneity in local labor market performances and of the presence of strongly specialized LLSs (industrial districts). Building on a semiparametric geoadditive model, our empirical investigation allows us to identify important nonlinearities in the relationship between local industry structure and local employment growth, to assess the relative performance of industrial districts (the places where Marshallian externalities occur)and to control for unobserved spatial heterogeneity.