Integrating knowledge and aerospace : Modeling a Sima Qian’s future for the possibility of the Chinese overtaking the Americans in outer space

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to answer the question “will China overtake the USA in the space race?” This paper reviews China’s recent progress in aerospace while developing a wind theory of change to underline the geographic spread of various empires over the past thousand years, a topic studied by one of China’s most prestigious historians, Sima Qian, with a specific interest in 2,500 years of the rise and fall of Chinese kingdoms. Based on the wind theory, China is geared to overtake the USA in the twenty-first century space race. Historically, Chinese have always been fascinated with outer space, and it is felt by many Chinese that the USA, despite its current lead in the field, should work with China to explore outer space. Design/methodology/approach – This paper introduces the philosophy and methodology of Sima Qian for Chinese management, in particular his analytical approach and drawing of lessons from past cases (dynasties) for managing the future which can be considered clearly reminiscent of the Harvard case approach. Evolving from this broad study of patterns by Sima Qian, a wind theory methodology is suggested using an overview of patterns over vast stretches of time, in this case from the Tang dynasty. Etymological analyses are embarked upon to illustrate how the ancient Chinese were interested in learning more about the outer space. Conceptual models are developed to map the current nascent space industry. Findings – After outlining the current developments made by China in aerospace, the overall analysis suggests the following: based on the wind theory of change, China will overtake the USA even in race into space. Given their historical fascination with outer space, Chinese are likely to enter the business of space at the opportune time. When will that be? Most likely when appropriate technologies have been developed, in particular developing safe moon tours for tourists. Practical implications – Suggests a futuristic look at the space industry that China can enter the market at the opportune time. With their long-term fascination with outer space, China may potentially be the largest market for those in space business. Originality/value – Introduces a new idea of looking into the future possibilities as embedded in the wind theory of change: the geographical patterns in the rise and fall of empires. If this pattern holds, China will overtake the USA including in the race for outer space. For the first time, this paper draws the relevance of Sima Qian’s analytical, case-based methods for management.