Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework

This study presents an integrated socioeconomic forecasting and analysis framework: a spatial regional econometric input–output model and its application to the Chicago metropolitan area. The new framework is designed to overcome some limitations of existing models, particularly (1) limited consideration of population–employment interactions and (2) dominance of top-down approach to vertical integration of regional and subregional variables. It captures local and lower level conditions and their effects on macroeconomic variables by using a modified disequilibrium adjustment model that incorporates subregional dynamics into a regional econometric input–output model in a reciprocal, interactive manner, as opposed to a top-down allocation process. The framework also considers both region-wide and subregional level population–employment interactions more systematically. It is demonstrated that the present model can support socioeconomic forecasting and a broad range of analyses, including the examinations of the macroeconomic impacts of local actions. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012