INTELLIGENT MACHINE TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This paper provides preliminary estimates of the productivity impact of intelligent machine technology (IMT) and the rate of return to IMT research and development (R&D) over the next two decades. The paper adapts economists' traditional productivity growth model to enable the use of industrial experts' forecasts of a few key parameters of the model to form the estimates of productivity growth and rate of return. Respondents - from a sample of firms operating in IMT development and applications in the automotive, aerospace, and capital construction industries - anticipate that IMT will generate substantial productivity growth over the next two decades, and the estimated social rates of return to IMT R&D are substantial.