Interval availability analysis of a two-echelon, multi-item system

In this paper we analyze the interval availability of a two-echelon, multi-item spare part inventory system. We consider a scenario inspired by a situation that we encountered at Thales Netherlands, a manufacturer of naval sensors and naval command and control systems. Modeling the complete system as a Markov chain we analyze the interval availability and we compute in closed and exact form the expectation and the variance of the availability during a finite time interval [0,T]. We use these characteristics to approximate the survival function using a Beta distribution, together with the probability that the interval availability is equal to one. Comparison of our approximation with simulation shows excellent accuracy, especially for points of the distribution function below the mean value. The latter points are practically most relevant.