Kernel Conditional Quantile Estimation for Stationary Processes with Application to Conditional Value-at-Risk

The paper considers kernel estimation of conditional quantiles for both short-range and long-range-dependent processes. Under mild regularity conditions, we obtain Bahadur representations and central limit theorems for kernel quantile estimates of those processes. Our theory is applicable to many price processes of assets in finance. In particular, we present an asymptotic theory for kernel estimates of the value-at-risk (VaR) of the market value of an asset conditional on the historical information or a state process. The results are assessed based on a small simulation and are applied to AT&T monthly returns. Copyright The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.