Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data

The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.

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Year of publication:	2010-12-02
Authors:	Gustavsson, Magnus ; Österholm, Pär
Institutions:	Nationalekonomiska Institutionen, Uppsala Universitet
Subject:	Mean reversion \| Unit-root test

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	The text is part of a series Working Paper Series, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies Number 2010:13 13 pages
Classification:	C22 - Time-Series Models ; E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages ; J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008753250