Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis Based on Input- Output Modeling.

Land availability is of crucial importance for china's food security and economic development in the next century. Economic growth, urbanization, diet structure changes, and population growth will influence both the demand of and the supply for land. A recursive input-output model enlarged by land is used to develop various scenarios of changes in the economy and society and to evaluate their effects on land-use change in China. Due to inefficiency and structural problems, China's land productivity has ample room to increase significantly above current levels even by further exploiting the potential of the existing technology. Results of some scenarios show that China would not be able to support the increasing demand for land intensive products with its land base without significant improvement in land productivity and/or by increasing import.