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Living in a world of low levels of predictability

This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.
Year of publication:
2009
Authors: Makridakis, Spyros ; Taleb, Nassim
Published in:
International Journal of Forecasting. - Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070. - Vol. 25.2009, 4, p. 840-844
Publisher: Elsevier
Keywords: Forecasting Accuracy Black Swans Low level predictability Illusion of control Paradox of control
Type of publication: Article
Source:
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008521529
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