Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget 2023-2027

This report provides projections for the inflows and outflows of the EU budget over the period 2023-2027. It is the second edition of the long-term forecast for revenue and expenditure stemming of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021-2027 and NextGenerationEU, updating the estimates presented in the June 2021 report. The forecast covers the next five years, in accordance with Article 247(1)(c) of the Financial Regulation. The period largely overlaps with last year's report, which exceptionally spanned over seven years from 2021 to 2027 to provide a comprehensive overview of the expected revenue inflows and the expenditure outflows under the ceilings of the then newly adopted MFF. Along with the MFF estimates, this forecast updates the projections of payments on all programmes under NextGenerationEU. This expenditure, additional to the spending under the MFF, is financed exclusively by revenue proceeds from borrowing operations on the capital markets. Payments from the EU budget follow commitments. The estimates in this report are based on the commitments of the financial programming accompanying the Draft Budget 2023. These include the adjustment of the MFF for the late adoption of rules and programmes under shared management under Article 7 of the MFF Regulation, the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5 of the MFF Regulation as well as re-use of de-commitments under Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation. As regards revenue, the forecast is based on the revenue system of the Own Resources Decision. The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community (the 'Withdrawal Agreement').