Macroeconometric modeling of the Russian and Armenian economy. I. Peculiarities of macroeconomic situation and theoretical description of dynamic models

The paper is the first part of the study which is devoted to the analysis of the macroeconomic trends in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Armenia in the period 1995–2011 and the development of the aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of these two countries. We use the two-stage approach to construction of econometric relationships: at the 1st stage dynamic models are found aimed at the theoretical description of the evolution of the most important sectors of the economy, and at the 2nd stage the econometric model of the national economy is created based upon cointegration and regression type of econometric relationships, as well as the balance type equations between the key economic indicators. The system of these equations enables us to analyze objective long-term trends, and to take into account short-term and middle-term effects of macroeconomic «shocks», so called macroeconomic projections.