Map of seismic hazard of India using Bayesian approach

A straightforward procedure of estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground acceleration and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution on a future time interval of 100 years is applied to territory of India. The input information for the method is seismic catalog and regression relation between peak ground acceleration at a given point and magnitude and distance from the considered site to hypocenter (seismic effect attenuation law). The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply allows account the influence of uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg–Richter’s type with cutoff maximal value for estimated parameter and a seismic catalog, having a rather big number of events. The results obtained in this study show high hazard values in terms of peak ground acceleration in northeast India, Himalayan belt, Andaman region and Kachhach region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010