Marginal Congestion Cost on a Dynamic Expressway Network

We formulate an empirical model of congestion for a series of sequential expressway links where queues may form and spill back. Its purpose is to disentangle the dynamic effect that a marginal vehicle has on the distribution of travel times experienced there and on connected links. We estimate a dynamic econometric model using unusually complete and accurate data from Danish motorways. We use the results to estimate the marginal external cost of adding a vehicle to a link's entry flow, finding it is highly influenced by the dynamic properties of the system of relationships between travel times and flows. © 2012 LSE and the University of Bath