Marginal value of improved maize seeds and inorganic fertilizer under stochastic yield distribution

This study's objectives were to determine the marginal value of adopting improved maize seeds and inorganic fertilizer by farmers in the intermediate altitudes and lowlands in Tanzania. Stochastic dominance analysis and Baye's Theorem were used to compare yields of local maize varieties and improved maize seeds with and without inorganic fertilizer application. Rainfall distribution was considered as the major source of production risk. The stochastic dominance results suggest that in the indermediate zone, growing improved maize seeds with and without fertilizer application were equally superior. In the lowlands, growing improved maize seeds with fertilizer application. The Baye's Theorem results that take into account rainfall distribution indicate that farmers moving from growing local varieties to improved seeds without fertilizer application stand to gain about 7,948 Tanzania shillings (TSH) per acre in the intermediate zone and 3,695 Tanzania shillings per acre in the lowlands zone. However, by moving from growing improved seeds to fertilizer application, the farmers lose money (9,305 TSH and 1,733 TSH per acre in the intermediate and lowland zones respectively). Promotion of inorganic fertilizer in both zones should go hand in hand with technologies that increase efficient use of available moisture to minimize field loss. (Q J Int Agric/DÜI)