Market index returns, macroeconomic variables, and tax-loss selling

This study provides the most direct macro-level test to date of the tax-loss selling hypothesis as an explanation of the January effect. By examining relationships between macroeconomic variables that should be related to tax-loss selling and market index measures of the January effect, this study provides an approach that addresses the market microstructure problems that are inherent in much of the prior research regarding tax-loss selling. This study also addresses some of the methodological and variable specification concerns in prior macro-level testing, resulting in stronger support for taxloss selling. Copyright Springer 2002