Market models for predicting PHEV adoption and diffusion

This is the final report on market models for predicting Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) adoption. The work was one of the tasks carried out by the University ofMichigan on the technical challenges of PHEVs and impacts to the U.S. power system. We first examine benchmark market models with fixed saturation levels. On balance, we conclude that their weaknesses dominate their strengths. We then examine two alternative approaches to predicting PHEV adoption and diffusion using models without a fixed saturation level: Centrone et al. (2007) and the consideration-purchase model (suggested by Struben and Sterman (2008)). The consideration-purchase model makes the market behavior of consumers the focus of attention, and it is our preferred market model.