Mathematical modeling and fuzzy availability analysis for serial processes in the crystallization system of a sugar plant

The binary states, i.e., success or failed state assumptions used in conventional reliability are inappropriate for reliability analysis of complex industrial systems due to lack of sufficient probabilistic information. For large complex systems, the uncertainty of each individual parameter enhances the uncertainty of the system reliability. In this paper, the concept of fuzzy reliability has been used for reliability analysis of the system, and the effect of coverage factor, failure and repair rates of subsystems on fuzzy availability for fault-tolerant crystallization system of sugar plant is analyzed. Mathematical modeling of the system is carried out using the mnemonic rule to derive Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations. These governing differential equations are solved with Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.