Measuring the Vulnerability of Children in Developing Countries : An Application to Guatemala

Anti-poverty policy in developing countries has focused mainly on the measurement and location of poverty and the targeting of policy towards those who are currently poor. Recently, the research effort has been extended to cover those judged to be not poor at present but vulnerable to poverty in the future. We concentrate on two aspects: inadequate education and child labor, which are closely associated with chronic poverty. We develop and apply new methods for the measurement and empirical analysis of vulnerability to future premature school leaving and/or onset of child labor. Guatemalan survey data are used for the illustrative application