Measuring total-factor agricultural productivity under drought conditions: the case of Morocco

There is recognition in Morocco that the country's agricultural support policy of the past, when rainfall was adequate, has become counter-productive now that droughts are more frequent. How to align policy with the new climatic reality is currently being discussed, and different research needs to assess alternative policy options for the future have been identified. One, which we address in this article, is to take a retrospective view of the respective contributions of agricultural policy and rainfall to productivity in the rain-dependent cereal sector. The specific contribution of the article is the development of an econometric framework for separating the effect of drought on total factor productivity from other effects, namely technical efficiency, pricing policy and demand effects. Findings suggest that only rain and technical efficiency drove total factor productivity growth in the cereal sector. This means that best agricultural practices and improved extension services should top the list of dryland farming policy. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.