Metas de Inflação, Crescimento e Estabilidade Macroeconômica Uma análise a partir de um modelo póskeynesianomacrodinâmico não-linear

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of adopting an inflation targeting regime, in which central banks set the short-term interest rate as a response to deviations of inflation from its target and of output from its potential, over economic growth. To this end, we build a non-linear post-keynesian growth model which allows the existence of more than one short-term equilibrium point. We conclude that maintaining a balanced short-term growth path after exogenous shocks depends largely on fiscal policy. Besides that, there are three possible long-term equilibrium configurations, two of which are inherently unstable. Long-term equilibrium stability of the third configuration depends on how central banks respond to deviations on inflation and output. More precisely, we show that a more cautious behavior from the Central Bank in a manner that it only increases short term interest rates when it is really required to do so could help the economy to have a balanced growth-path in the longrun.