METHODOLOGIES FOR ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RISK IN AGRICULTURAL EXPLOITATIONS

Risk is a probabilistic phenomena associated with all economic activities. Size and charge decisions to reduce risk is greater in agriculture, given the conditions in which the production is obtained. Whether is about the risk of production, caused by natural or economic risk factors, influenced by the inherent market interventions, in agricultural exploitations the risk appears to be least controllable variable, making it necessary to use methodology for its analysis and evaluation. This paper supports the assertion that the risk is even lower as the knowledge from the past tendencies of phenomena (production, price, demand, supply, state natural factors) is more analytical and addresses the issue risk management by its evaluation, turning to methods, indicators, mathematical modeling. The aim is to highlight the positive effects of prevision, using the specific methods and indicators, and to reveal that programming has, in addition to the direct role to guide agricultural unit in respect of the allocation of resources, prevision production, income and expenditure, the role to prevision size of risk, through its inclusion in the program.