Methodology for Validating Dynamic Origin--Destination Matrix Estimation Models with Implications for Advanced Traveler Information Systems

This paper describes a methodology for validating online dynamic O--D matrix estimation models using loop detector data in large-scale transportation networks. The simulation procedure focuses on travel aspects related to the collective trip structure of users, including the amount and duration of trips between O--D pairs, trip departure rates, average travel time from each origin and combinations of them. The analysis identifies emerging systematic patterns between these factors and issues related to the model performance, including network scale effects. This procedure aims to enhance the usage of prior O--D information based on, e.g. travel surveys, that are typically used in the estimation process. Moreover, it seeks to integrate the validation of dynamic O--D matrix estimation models with strategies for identifying target population groups for online planning and assessment of real-time travel information services within the context of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS).