Migration trends in an enlarged Europe

The study concurs with the results of most methodologically acceptable micro and macro studies that the EU should not expect a tidal wave of emigrants from the eastern and Mediterranean acceding and candidate countries. All indicators point to a volume similar to that experienced after the southern enlargement of the EU in the 1980s. The volume of intended firm migration is likely to be around 1.0% of the population of 15 years and older in the 10 acceding countries and 3 candidate countries in the next five years. The largest, but relatively unrealistic, migration potential (people who expressed a general inclination) is around 4.5% in the same time span. The predictions of this study for migration from the 10 central and eastern acceding and candidate countries, excluding the three Mediterranean countries, concur with the latest results of an econometric study of the European Commission. That study predicts a gross migration of around 1.1 million within five years. The predicted volume between the 13 acceding and candidate countries varies significantly, however. According to this study, the highest migration potential within the 13 candidate countries is in Bulgaria and Romania. Turkish respondents were much less likely to be considering a move to Europe, with a narrow migration potential of less than half a percent and a wide migration potential of 6%. The figures for all larger acceding countries in the narrow potential band are around 1% in the next five years.