'Minus 1' and Energy Costs Constants : Empirical Evidence, Theory and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates an apparent long-term constancy of economy-wide energy expenditures relative to income – an inter-decadally-constrained sustainable (“Bashmakov-Newbery”) range of 4.2±0.8% relative to Gross Output, and 7.2±1.5% relative to GDP. Initial evidence suggests the range to be narrower when external trade effects are accounted for. Statistically equivalent to a very-long-term price-to-energy-intensity elasticity of -1 (“Minus 1”), this indicates long-period economic dynamics including induced innovation and structural change, and we probe theories and policy implications. Either higher energy prices are fully offset by reduced energy intensity, or they later decline to match energy intensity improvements. Complementary theoretical approaches help to explain the observations but challenge the conventional economic logic that high environmental pricing should be the principal instrument to drive transformation. Rather, energy efficiency, innovation, deployment, structural change and pricing co-evolve, suggesting need for a diversity of complementary policy strategies implemented over extended periods of time