Mis-Leading Indicators? The Argentinean Currency Crisis

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the ?early warning? or ?signals? approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.

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Year of publication:	2003
Authors:	Plata, Patricia Alvarez ; Schrooten, Mechthild
Publisher:	Berlin : Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Subject:	Währungskrise \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Frühwarnsystem \| Argentinien \| Currency Crisis \| Early Warning Systems

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Series:	DIW Discussion Papers ; 327
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	84955683X [GVK] hdl:10419/18063 [Handle] RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp327 [RePEc]
Classification:	F31 - Foreign Exchange ; F47 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	EconStor