Modeling the Flow of the COVID-19 in Germany : the Efficacy of Lockdowns and Social Behavior

This study develops a computer simulation in understanding the flow of the COVID-19 in Germany between January 2020 and July 2020. This aims to analyze not only the flow of the COVID-19 but also the efficacy of taken measures during the given period. The computer model is based on the SEIR concept and it is based on the system dynamics approach in which some uncertain parameters are estimated through the calibration process. Moreover, the SEIR computer model is developed by considering different flows of COVID-19 cases in older and young people in Germany. This study successfully reproduces similar patterns of infected, recovered, and death cases. Moreover, as the SEIR model can successfully reproduce similar patterns, the SEIR model can be a basis to estimate other resources such as healthcare workers and bed capacities