Modelling Dynamics of Brain Drain

Success and vector of development of any country is significantly determined by solution of dual problems: on the one hand, problems of brain drain and, on the other hand, attraction of highly qualified specialists into different branches of production and management. Using the method proposed by Academician Arnold V. I., the article builds a dynamic model of assessment of a number of scientists in a country. The obtained results of expert assessments allow making a quantitative assessment of possible scenarios of development of science in a country and prospects of its modernisation. The model is applicable during a short period of time, since during a long period of time it does not work due to satiety and needs to be developed further.