Modelling Production and Fiscal Effects in the System of Economic Security of a State

The article considers issues of modelling of production and fiscal effects as very important instruments of the system of economic security of a state. It builds economic and mathematical models of interconnection of fiscal indicators and socio-economic state of the state on the basis of production and institution functions. It studies dynamics of the fiscal clearance on the basis of estimated parameters of production functions, which take into account, in their specification, the generalised tax load and also the loads by most important types of taxes separately. The article proves existence of a number of inconsistencies and imbalance of movement of financial flows in the economic system. It builds an imitation model of assessment of the tax base with consideration of fiscal indicators, with the help of which it conducts analysis of scenarios of a number of imitation experiments, which assess possibilities of expansion of the tax base and harmonisation or relations of the production sector and budget interests of the state.