Modelling traveller response to variable message sign

Rapid traffic growth in Calgary has put increased pressure in city's roadway network, especially on Deerfoot Trail which provides a fast access to north-south potion of the city. The city disseminates traffic information in Deerfoot through variable message sign (VMS) in case of major delays and usually diverts traffic to alternate parallel arterials. However, the reroute tendency of travellers significantly affects the diversion pattern at the VMS locations and this research targets the frequent users of Deerfoot Trail and investigates their rerouting tendency in light of important trip attributes drivers might associate with their trips. A total of 471 responses are collected from frequent users of Deerfoot Trail through a questionnaire survey and the analysis is focused on developing a relationship between reroute tendency and a set of explanatory variables, using generalized ordered logit (GOLOGIT) model and partially generalized regression models. The results have led to the conclusion that in addition to various socio-economic attributes, network familiarity and information access characteristics; trip characteristics also possess significant influences in rerouting decision-making. The study also proposes several implications for better design and operation of advanced traveller information systems and future effort on model estimation in light of the finding of the study.