Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data

Most mobile telephony diffusion studies use penetration rate based market data as the proxy and assume each adoption as the first adoption, an approach which often overlooks the multiple-subscription phenomenon. This paper, instead, aims to explain the diffusion of mobile telephony, taking the multiple-subscription phenomenon into consideration. For this purpose, time-series sampling-based penetration rate data are used as the proxy and simultaneous non-linear equations are applied to fundamental diffusion models, i.e. Gomperts, logistic and Bass models to model the diffusion pattern of each type of adopters, i.e. adopters with single subscriptions and one with multiple subscriptions. Taking the Swedish market as the case, the result shows that each type of adopters has a different diffusion pattern as a result of different saturation levels and delay factor for diffusion growth. Based on the generated diffusion curves, the remaining mobile telephony non-adopters in the Swedish population and the fraction of multiple subscribers and its growth trend can be estimated and relevant business and policy implications can be discussed.