Natural gas, public investment and debt sustainability in Mozambique

Giovanni Melina and Yi Xiong

Mozambique has great potential in natural gas reserves and if liquefied/commercialized the sum of taxes andother fiscal revenue from natural gas will, at its peak, reach roughly one third of total fiscal revenue. Recent developments in the natural resource sector have triggered a fresh round of much needed infrastructure investment. This paper uses the DIGNAR model to simulate alternative public investment scaling-up plans inalternative LNG market scenarios. Results show that while a conservative approach, which simply awaits LNG revenues, would miss significant current growth opportunities, an a

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Melina, Giovanni ; Yi Xiong
Publisher:	Washington, DC : IMF
Subject:	Erdgas \| Natural gas \| Öffentliche Einnahmen \| Public revenue \| Infrastrukturinvestition \| Infrastructure investment \| Mosambik \| Mozambique

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (36 S.) graph. Darst.
Series:	IMF working papers. - Washington, DC : IMF, ZDB-ID 2108494-4. - Vol. 13/261
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Natural Gas Sector in Mozamique: An Overview; Tables; Table 1. Countries with World's Largest Proven Natural Gas Reserves; III. Predicting LNG Revenue: The FARI model; Table 2. Representative EPCC Parameters; IV. Public Investment in Mozambique; Figures; Figure 1. LNG Sector Contribution to GDP and Fiscal Revenue; V. The Macroeconomic Effects of Investment Scaling-Ups; A. The DIGNAR Model; Figure 2. Mozambique: Public Capital Expenditure, 1991-2012; B. Scenarios of LNG production; C. Simulation results Figure 3. LNG Revenue Simulations in the Baseline and Adverse Scenarios.Figure 4. Public Investment Scaling-Ups and Growth Outcomes.; Figure 5. Fiscal Consequences of Public Investment Scaling-Ups.; D. Structural reforms: the impact of governance and project selection; VI. Conclusion; Figure 6. The Effects of Improvements in Project Selection and Better Governance and Execution; References; Appendices; A. DIGNAR model details; Households; Firms; Government; Identities and market clearing conditions; B. First-order conditions; Demand functions for tradable and non-tradable goods Labour supply in the tradable and non-tradable sectorOptimizing households' decisions; Rule-of-thumb households' decisions; Non-tradable sector's decisions; Tradable sector's decisions; C. Calibration; Table 3. Calibration
ISBN:	978-1-4843-2640-4 ; 978-1-4843-2640-4
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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