Network Resilience of Phosphorus Cycling in China Has Shifted by Natural Flows, Fertilizer Use and Dietary Transitions between 1600 and 2012

The resilience of the phosphorus (P) cycling network is critical to ecosystem functioning and human activities. Although P cycling pathways have been previously mapped, a knowledge gap remains in evaluating the P network’s ability to withstand shocks or disturbances. Applying principles of mass balance and ecological network analysis, we examine the network resilience of P cycling in China from 1600 to 2012. Results show that changes in network resilience have shifted from being driven by natural P flows for food production to industrial P flows for chemical fertilizer production. Urbanization has intensified the one-way journey of P, further deteriorating network resilience. Over 2000–2012, the network resilience of P cycling has decreased by 11% due to dietary changes towards more animal-based foods. A trade-off between network resilience improvement and increasing food trade is also observed. These findings can support policy decisions for enhanced P cycling network resilience in China