No Going Back : COVID-19 Disease Threat Perception and Migrants’ Willingness to Return to Work in India

In this paper, we explore the link between the likelihood of re-migration to cities and the perceived threat of contracting COVID-19 using data on male reverse migrant workers in India collected using a telephonic survey. Using a linear IV regression framework, we find that independent of duration of migration, individuals who perceive a positive chance of contracting COVID-19 have significantly lower stated likelihood to return to their urban work centres. We observe heterogeneity with respect to duration of migration as longer-term migrants perceive a lower disease threat than short-term migrants. With respect to behavioural attributes, loss-averse individuals display lower disease threat perception and projected likelihood of return, whereas more impatient individuals display a higher projected likelihood of return. Furthermore individuals with higher subjective well-being perceive both a lower COVID-19 threat and display greater unwillingness to return. With respect to socio-demographics, we find that having dependents and owning more land increases the threat perception of COVID-19. Moreover, we find that workers who are married display lower projected likelihood of return to urban work centres, while those with more dependents, a regular monthly income and a savings bank account display a higher willingness to return. We also find that a higher recall of preventive measures is associated with a lower COVID-19 threat perception. Finally, individuals with larger social networks project a lower likelihood of return. Thus, a key policy takeaway from our results is that along with standard economic incentives, behavioural and individual factors and access to information regarding COVID-19 crucially determine migrants' potential return to urban workplaces