Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany

Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD?s forecasts for Germany?s consumption and GDP growth.

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Year of publication:	2003
Authors:	Antzoulatos, Angelos A. ; Wilfling, Bernd
Institutions:	HWWA Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Subject:	Consumption \| GDP \| macroeconomic forecasts \| non-linear dynamics

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	HWWA Discussion Papers. - ISSN 1616-4814.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	Number 223
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E21 - Consumption; Saving ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957443