Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany

Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth.

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Year of publication:	2003
Authors:	Antzoulatos, Angelos A. ; Wilfling, Bernd
Publisher:	Hamburg : Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)
Subject:	Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum \| Prognoseverfahren \| Statistischer Fehler \| Einkommenshypothese \| Nichtlineare dynamische Systeme \| Schätzung \| Theorie \| Deutschland \| Consumption \| GDP \| macroeconomic forecasts \| non-linear dynamics

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Series:	HWWA Discussion Paper ; 223
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	363660267 [GVK] hdl:10419/19164 [Handle] RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26169 [RePEc]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E21 - Consumption; Saving ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	EconStor

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295325