OECD Energy Demand: Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends using the Structural Time Series Model

Aggregate energy demand functions for 17 OECD countries are estimated with data for 1960-2003 using the Structural Time Series Model (STSM) thus allowing for a stochastic Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT). It is found that the estimated long-run income and price elasticities range from 0.5 to 1.5 and -0.1 to -0.4 respectively. Furthermore the stochastic form for the UEDT is preferred for all countries suggesting a wide variation in the exogenous effects of energy saving technical progress in addition to other pertinent exogenous factors such as economic structure, consumer preferences, and socio-economic influences.