Oil windfall, public spending and price stability: modelling inflation in Chad†

This article examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements and particularly public spending, which soared following the onset of oil production in 2003. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively. <fn id="FN0001"> †The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. </fn>