On Dynamic Arbitrage Pricing and Information: The Case of the US Broiler Sector.

The paper investigates the nature of arbitrage price dynamics and expectations formation in the US broiler market. The analysis provides evidence of heterogeneous expectations among market participants. A significant part of broiler pricing is found to be consistent with quasi-rational expectations where future prices are anticipated on the basis of their observed historical patterns. However, most of the market is found to be associated with naive expectations, where future prices are anticipated on the basis of the last observed price. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.