On the Analysis of Critical Path Time Estimating Behavior

This paper presents some results of an analysis of time estimating behavior on critical path networks used in large scale development projects. The general results appear to confirm the validity of the tentative conclusions previously reported by King and Wilson [King, W. R., T. A. Wilson. 1967. Subjective time estimates in critical path planning---A preliminary analysis. Management Sci. 13(5, January).]. The objective of the historical analysis is to test the potential of adjustment models based on historical estimating behavior. If such models can be developed, the utility of critical path techniques should be greatly enhanced.