On the Duality between Long-run Relations and Common Trends in an Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Money Holdings

The multivariate cointegration model in the autoregressive and the moving average form is discussed in terms of long run relations and common trends driving the system. The basic results needed for the cointegration analysis of processes integrated of order 2 are reviewed, and the notion of weak exogeneity and long run exclusion is shortly discussed. The cointegration model is applied to Danish money demand data and "excess money", and its effect on the other determinants of the system, in particular on the price inflation, is investigated. The results give strong empirical evidence about the lack of significance of excess money as an explanatory variable to the inflation rate behaviour in the Danish economy.