On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters

It is not uncommon to observe the published forecasts of economic commentators closely bunched together over long periods of time. In our case, the phenomenon is observed for eight national panels of economists who report monthly forecasts. A framework is developed that conveniently nests within it several simple, yet plausible forecasting rules, and allows us to explore the extent of the clustering phenomenon.

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Year of publication:	2002-04-26
Authors:	Bewley, Ronald ; Fiebig, Denzil G.
Published in:	Empirical Economics. - Department of Economics and Finance Research and Teaching. - Vol. 27.2002, 3, p. 403-425
Publisher:	Department of Economics and Finance Research and Teaching
Subject:	Clustering of forecasts \| forecast accuracy \| panel data

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Notes:	received: June 1999/Final version received: February 2001
Classification:	C33 - Models with Panel Data ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005184242