Overconfidence, Social Groups, and Gender : Evidence from the Lab and Field

Previous research indicates that economic agents incorrectly believe that they will perform better than others in a variety of environments. This paper investigates whether a similar phenomenon exists for social groups. Students participating in a lab experiment and Scrabble players participating in a tournament revealed their beliefs about their own performances and their friends' performances. On average, the lab and field subjects both show similar levels of confidence in themselves and in their social groups. Behind these similar average levels of confidence lie some striking gender differences. In both the lab and the field, female subjects tend to show greater confidence in their groups than in themselves, while male subjects show greater confidence in themselves than in their groups