Panel threshold effect of climate variability on agricultural output in Eastern African countries

Recent scientific literature shows that in many developing countries, variability in rainfall and temperature in growing season has detrimental effects on agricultural output, especially when the variability is high. It is yet unclear to what extent or threshold these variations impair the agricultural productivity in some parts of Africa. In this study, we answer this research question using a dynamic panel threshold model on a panel dataset of East African countries for the period 1961-2020. We incorporate climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. The empirical results indicate that growing rainfall variability has significant effects on agricultural output. More specifically, we found a significant negative effect from rainfall variability in spring and summer, when precipitation variability exceeds thresholds of −0.533 mL and −0.902 mL respectively. However, these effects are indistinguishable from zero in fall season. Regarding a growing-season temperature variability, we found no significant effects across seasons. Policy implications are discussed. The findings suggest that African countries should speed up renovating/investing in small scale technologies to alleviate the impact of the within growing season precipitation variability. To mitigate the effect caused by the growing seasonal variability in precipitation, technologies such as flexible planting, rainwater harvesting, smart water-management systems that use drop-bydrop, sprinkler irrigation processes to improve agricultural output. Furthermore, new policies should be implemented by governments to encourage innovation in technology.