Participação da termogeração na expansão do sistema elétrico brasileiro

The power system regulation order that the energy dispatch is centralized by a agent - ONS - that should use a stochastic dynamic optimization model that maximize the energy is accumulated in the hydro plants. This model consider only the uncertainty of water affluence. Our first issue is develop another model that do the same for a simplified system - just one hydro and one termo plant - but considering the uncertainty of demand and of gas price. Our second target is evaluate the relationship between system expansion cost and termo generation participation. Our third target is to measure the effect of operation flexibility of the power plants on then system operation cost. To analyse this questions was developed a dynamic stochastic control model that do the optimal dispatch.