Patterns of speculation : a study in observational econophysics

Cover -- Half-title -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Part I Econophysics -- 1 Why econophysics? -- 1 Newton's apple paradigm revisited -- 1.1 Newton's apple -- 1.2 An economic parallel -- 2 Simple phenomena first -- 2.1 Two-body problems -- 2.2 Complexity classification -- 2.3 The role of time: Simon's bowl metaphor -- 2.4 Simple aspects of complex systems -- 3 From plausible reasons to regularities -- 3.1 The pot of yoghurt paradigm -- 3.2 Plausible causes versus scientific explanations -- 3.3 Regularities -- 3.4 Circumstantial causes versus structural factors -- 3.5 Models need accurate empirical targets -- 4 Conclusion -- 4.1 The primacy of observation -- 4.2 "Modest goals" -- 4.3 Clusters of events and comparative analysis -- 2 The beginnings of econophysics -- 1 Pre-econophysics -- 1.1 Pre-econophysicists -- 1.1.1 Quételet (1796-1874) -- 1.1.2 Walras (1834-1910) -- 1.1.3 Pareto (1848-1923) -- 1.1.4 Allais (1911-) -- 1.1.5 Other pre-econophysicists -- 1.2 Assessment of pre-econophysics -- 2 Institutional econophysics -- 2.1 Idiosyncrasies of economic journals -- 2.2 The beginnings of econophysics -- 2.3 Neurophysics -- 2.4 The fractal revolution -- 2.5 Formation of an econophysical community -- 2.6 A personal note -- 2.7 The future of econophysics -- Part II How do markets work? -- 3 Social man versus homo economicus -- 1 The social man and the Zeitgeist -- 1.1 Connection between fast growth sectors and Zeitgeist -- 1.1.1 Slave trade -- 1.1.2 X-ray medical instruments -- 1.2 Quantitative measure of the role of the Zeitgeist -- 1.3 Ways and means of the Zeitgeist -- 2 Regularities -- 2.1 The search for uniformities and regularities -- 2.2 Examples of speculative peaks -- 2.2.1 Commodity markets -- 2.2.2 Land and real estate -- 2.2.3 Postage stamps and antiquarian books -- 2.2.4 Share prices -- 2.2.5 Conclusion.