Perennial crops in European farming systems and land use change: a model assessment

The aim of this paper is to estimate the perennial crop potential regarding new uses like second generation biofuels. We focus on the introduction of a perennial yearly harvested crop, namely the miscanthus, in European agricultural short term supply model - AROPAj. Inserting this crop in the model requires the determination of two elements: a) the yield growth function which is calibrated and based on the few available data and adjusted to the yield of traditional crops, and b) the discounted cost, which is calculated through the "Faustmann" rule used in the case of a perennial yearly harvested crop. We estimate ?rst the potential yield of miscanthus at the subregional level (i.e. the "farm group? level), and we parametrize the potential rate for simulations. The analysis covers a large part of the European Union and provides a land use change assessment estimated when the miscanthus yield potential varies. The model appears to be able to capture some complex land use change involving croplands and grasslands when a perennial competitive crop is introduced, beyond the usual competition between food crops and energy crops. The major result is summarized by the common evolution of substitution of croplands and grasslands by the perennial crop when its potential increases.